MADRID, Spain – The Ceuta crisis is taking its toll on the PSOE, which is watching the Popular Party pull further ahead in the polls. According to the latest DYM Institute barometer for 20minutos, the conservatives dip slightly, but the Socialists lose almost a point following the mass entry of some 80,000 irregular immigrants into the autonomous city. The biggest beneficiary of the political situation is Vox, the party that has risen most since the summer break, though Sumar also recovers a share of the vote.
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Alberto Núñez Feijóo’s formation would today obtain 34.7 per cent of the vote, between 144 and 148 seats, two tenths less than in July, although the figure once again confirms its improvement on the results harvested in the 2023 elections, which it won with 33.1 per cent of the ballots. Even so, it remains below the peak of 37.1 per cent in voting intention it reached at the end of that electoral year. Vox, for its part, takes the best part of the cake, mainly at the expense of the PP, rising almost a point compared with two months ago and five since the last general elections to 17.3 per cent, between 58 and 61 seats, consolidating itself in third position. Some 10.4 per cent of those who voted for the conservatives three years ago would today vote for Santiago Abascal’s party. In any case, the sum of PP and Vox would grant them a comfortable absolute majority in Congress, set at 176 seats.
In second place stands the PSOE, which suffers after the Ceuta crisis and loses seven tenths since the last July barometer. The Socialists, whom 8.7 per cent of those who voted for them in 2023 would today abandon for the PP, would obtain 26.3 per cent of the vote and a range of between 102 and 105 seats. That is five points less than in the 2023 elections and a figure very close to the one obtained in the survey DYM conducted in June 2025, in the midst of the Cerdán case, when it reached its minimum by registering 26.1 per cent of the vote. However, at that time its partners were better positioned, especially Sumar, which, although it has experienced a slight rise in the last two months, would today obtain barely 4.5 per cent of the vote and a maximum of seven seats. Podemos, for its part, which in July came to be above the plurinational space, falls again to 3.7 per cent and two to three deputies. Together, as they ran in the 2023 elections, they lose more than four points compared with those elections.
This is precisely one of the great unknowns ahead of the next electoral appointment: whether both formations will again unite to avoid the dispersion of the vote. While Irene Montero, the purple candidate, has already called for open primaries to choose the leader of the left, Sumar has not yet chosen its candidate and rules out submitting to the process proposed by the former minister.
Starting from the basis that the valuation of all leaders falls slightly compared with two months ago and that none comes close to passing, the PP president, Alberto Núñez Feijóo, is the one Spaniards hold in highest regard, with a 3.2, though he is far from the 4.1 he obtained in October 2024. He is followed by the head of the executive, Pedro Sánchez, with an average score of 3, matching his worst historical result, reached in June 2025.
La crisis de Ceuta pasa factura al PSOE mientras Vox capitaliza el descontento https://t.co/TnZxTsrvaA
— Heraldo de Aragón (@heraldoes) September 24, 2026
The two leaders also achieve a similar score from their own voters and in no case exceed 6, with Socialists giving Sánchez a 5.7 while those who chose the PP in the last general elections give Feijóo a 5.9. Further down are Yolanda Díaz at 3, who in the coming months will fight her candidacy to lead the International Labour Organization, Santiago Abascal at 2.9 and Podemos secretary general Ione Belarra at 2.2, who has already announced she will be the purple candidate in the next regional elections of the Community of Madrid.
Feijóo is, in addition to the best-valued leader, the preferred choice of Spaniards to govern, with 36.2 per cent thinking so while 34.7 per cent want Sánchez. Although the distance between the two is minimal, an important change has taken place compared with four months ago, when in May a 42.9 per cent preferred the Socialist against 36.6 per cent who opted for the conservative, although in view of the data the drop of the former seems to have more to do with his own discredit.
Meanwhile, the government has suffered one of the worst drops in valuation of the legislature, with Spaniards giving it barely a 3.7 score while in May it reached 4.4. As for the evaluative balance, the arithmetic difference between positive and negative opinions, it goes from minus 4 in July to minus 13.8 in September, with 54.2 per cent of respondents failing the executive against 40.4 per cent giving it a pass.
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All in all, a majority also thinks that all the indicators they were asked about have worsened as the legislature has progressed. The first is access to housing, with 77.8 per cent of Spaniards thinking it is a problem that has worsened in the last three years. Next is the perception recorded on immigration, with 76.3 per cent, and inflation, with 75.8 per cent. Respondents also consider that corruption at 69.1 per cent and healthcare at 62.3 per cent have worsened in this legislature, while the most stable indicator is unemployment, although 43.1 per cent believe it has worsened against 27.2 per cent who think it remains the same and 24.5 per cent who say it has improved.
